Publications

National unemployment in September was 8.2%, the lowest for a September in 24 years. Seasonally adjusted, the rate was 8.8%, remaining low. Versus August, the sharp decline was driven mainly by stronger job creation, with employment up 3.1%.

The Central Bank kept its policy rate at 9.25% for the fourth consecutive meeting, a decision reflecting caution amid persistent inflation risks and the ongoing economic recovery.

Monthly inflation in September was 0.32%, above the expectations of analysts (0.24% according to the Central Bank’s survey) and BBVA Research (0.23%). As a result, annual inflation stood at 5.18%, an increase of 8 basis points compared to August, marking three consecutive months of increases.

In 2025, the current account deficit would increase slightly due to a larger trade deficit driven by strong domestic demand, which lifts imports while exports grow only moderately. Remittances and a moderate primary-income deficit would partly offset it, and FDI would continue to finance it.

The national unemployment rate for August was 8.6%, the lowest for an August since 2001. Seasonally adjusted, the rate was 9%, remaining at low and relatively stable levels since March. This has been driven by a combination of good employment growth and a slower pace of labor supply growth.

The Bank of the Republic maintained its benchmark interest rate at 9.25% in a divided decision by its Board, reflecting its cautious stance amid persistent inflation and fiscal risks. The institution also announced the cancellation of the Flexible Credit Line with the IMF.

The Colombian economy will grow by 2.5% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, driven by domestic demand while investment begins a gradual recovery. Sticky inflation and fiscal challenges will condition the pace of interest rate cuts by the Central Bank.