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The United States faces global uncertainty in terms of trade policy, with forecasts of inflation and interest rate cuts. At the same time, the Colombian economy is recovering, with consumption driving the recovery. Unemployment rates are low and informality is on the rise.

GDP rose 2.1% y/y in Q2 2025, fueled by consumption, especially durable goods. Investment focused on machinery and civil works, but buildings weighed down growth. The 2025 forecast remains at 2.3%, with room for upside if positive trends strengthen.

Monthly inflation in July stood at 0.28%, exceeding analysts’ expectations. As a result, the annual inflation rate rose to 4.9%, marking an 8 basis point increase compared to June’s figure. This outcome was mainly driven by an acceleration in the inflation of perishable food items.

Poverty stood at 31.8% in 2024, down from 34.6% in 2023 – a reduction of 2.8 percentage points. This means 1.3 million people exited poverty between 2023 and 2024. Overall, between 2012 and 2024, poverty decreased by 9.2 pp, falling from 41% to 31.8%.

In July, the Central Bank of Colombia kept the policy rate at 9.25% in a split decision. Although headline inflation eased slightly and economic activity showed more momentum, the Board highlighted the stability of core inflation and inflation expectations, as well as strong domestic demand, justifying a restrictive stance.

Household spending has emerged as Colombia’s main growth engine in 2025, driven by rising income, improving credit, strong remittances, and renewed consumer confidence. Despite early signs of labor market cooling, consumption remains the key economic driver.

Colombia's annual inflation for June 2025 stood at 4.8%, with a monthly variation of 0.10%, lower than the 0.19% expected by analysts. This marks the first time it has been below 5.0% since October 2021. The moderation was explained by the food and regulated items baskets.

The national unemployment rate for May 2025 was 9.0%, lower than 10.3% a year ago and the lowest for a May in the last 24 years. Seasonally adjusted, the rate showed a decreasing trend between June 2024 and April 2025 and was around 9% in the March-May 2025 period.