Publications

The images of the floods that hit Valencia last October are still fresh in the collective memory. BBVA Research has developed an analytical framework to make the most of the available information and quantitatively assess both the impact and recovery after a climate disaster.

Tourism and consumption continue to drive growth toward the Mediterranean and the islands in 2025, but the prospect of a slowdown persists toward 2026 in a context of high uncertainty that delays the acceleration of export-producing regions.

In 2024, growth is revised upwards due to the boost in domestic consumption and tourism. The end of the drought, the improvement of the European economy, and the reduction of interest rates will help sustain growth, affected by the impact of the dana and possible changes in tariff policy in the US.

Five weeks after the DANA (December 3–9), most indicators in Valencia province displayed stronger performance than those in the rest of Spain. However, foreign card spending continued to lag behind the national growth rate.

Spending in the province of Valencia rebounded during the week of November 19 to 25. The growth differential with the rest of Spain became positive in most indicators, although the most affected municipalities still show significant falls.

Observing the performance of the economy in real time and at high granularity is vital to quickly measure the economic impact of an exceptional event such as the recent DANA that has left a lasting impact in our country, especially in Valencia.

Most indicators show an improvement in economic activity in Valencia during the week of November 5 to 11, although both the growth rates and, more importantly, the levels remain below what would have been observed without the DANA, particularly in the hardest-hit municipalities, where significant impacts are still evident.

The objective of the first issue of this weekly observatory is to contribute to monitoring the economic impact of DANA on families and companies in the affected areas, report on the relief provided by public policies and provide data that can help improve them.