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Growth remains solid, but in a context of deceleration. In 2025, services exports remain the main growth driver. In 2026, the impact of tariffs and the slowdown in non-resident consumption will lead to a moderation in growth.

The images of the floods that hit Valencia last October are still fresh in the collective memory. BBVA Research has developed an analytical framework to make the most of the available information and quantitatively assess both the impact and recovery after a climate disaster.

The reactivation of the economy after the dana and the measures approved justify that in 2025 and 2026 growth could reach 2.7% if the aid arrives quickly and reaches the announced amount. Domestic demand will be supported by the fall in inflation and interest rates and by the increase in wages and employment.

In 2024, growth is revised upwards due to the boost in domestic consumption and tourism. The end of the drought, the improvement of the European economy, and the reduction of interest rates will help sustain growth, affected by the impact of the dana and possible changes in tariff policy in the US.

One month after DANA (week from November 26 to December 2), the majority of indicators in the province of Valencia show a similar evolution to that observed in the rest of Spain, highlighting the acceleration shown in spending by foreigners, car registrations and the most affected municipalities.

Spending in the province of Valencia rebounded during the week of November 19 to 25. The growth differential with the rest of Spain became positive in most indicators, although the most affected municipalities still show significant falls.

During the week of November 12 to 18, the improvement trend in most spending indicators stopped. Growth rates have shown a similar behavior to that of the previous week, maintaining a negative gap with respect to the evolution observed in the rest of Spain.

Most indicators show an improvement in economic activity in Valencia during the week of November 5 to 11, although both the growth rates and, more importantly, the levels remain below what would have been observed without the DANA, particularly in the hardest-hit municipalities, where significant impacts are still evident.