Publications

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator (BBVA Research MMI) fell (-)3.0% YoY in August, the largest contraction since January.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a 2.5% MoM increase in August, temporarily driven by the back-to-school season (goods consumption grew 4.4%, and spending on services rose 1.6%).

In June 2025, Mexico faced an effective average tariff of 8.28% on $44.9 billion in exports to the US—among the lowest globally. This reflects shifting trade flows and sector-specific tariff variations, positioning Mexico to benefit from renewed nearshoring momentum.

In July, remittances reached Mexico for 5,330 million, a 4.7% drop compared to the same month in 2024. From January to July 2025, remittances totaled $34.889 billion, a lower amount than what was received in 2024, and even lower than in 2023.

The trade surplus in 2Q25 is mainly due to the positive balance on non-oil-related goods, which in the second quarter of 2025 was USD 8,893 million after having posted a surplus of USD 4,730 million in the first quarter.

In June, real growth in outstanding loans to non-financial private sector slowed to 5.4% annually, its lowest level since April 2024, as the surge in demand ahead of US tariffs faded. Deposits registered a slower overall growth (3.6% in real annual terms), influenced by the weakness of the economy's revenue sources.

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 1.2% YoY in July, 0.9 pp above the figure registered the previous month (0.3% YoY); considering the July data, the year-over-year variation of the BBVA Research MMI reaches an average of (-)0.2% in the first seven months of the year (vs -1.5% in 2024).

Formal employment reached a record high in July 2025 due to the incorporation of digital platform workers. Excluding this effect, there was a net destruction of jobs, in a context of declining investment and weak consumption.