Publications

We think the room to continue easing is unlikely to have been materially affected by the Fed’s more cautious tone from last week, as some Board members have indicated that a narrowing rate spread is not a binding constraint.

Remittances to Mexico fell 2.7% in September, marking their sixth consecutive month of decline. A total of 13.2 million remittance transactions were reported (-4.7% year-on-year), while the average remittance was 396 dollar (+2.1%).

Economic activity declined (-)0.3% QoQ in 3Q25, reflecting the contraction in the industrial sector (-1.5% QoQ) and the modest growth in services (0.1% QoQ); considering the 3Q25 figure, GDP increased 0.5% as of September.

The production of liquid hydrocarbons of Pemex in the third quarter of 2025 vs. the previous quarter showed an increment of 17.6 thousand barrels a day mainly due to a higher production of heavy and light crude oil by 17.9 thousand barrels a day.

Formal employment in Mexico remained stagnant in September, posting a 0.05% monthly and 0.4% annual increase. Weak investment and sluggish consumption continue to constrain job creation, while manufacturing and construction sectors continue to contract.

Banking intermediation revealed the effects of economic slowdown in August. Current loans growth to non-financial private sector waned to 5.1% in real terms annually, as the growth of its main components dwindled. While banking deposits growth came at 3.9% in real terms annually, a 1.4pp below the average growth in 1H25.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a (-)0.3% month-on-month (MoM) decline in September, reflecting contractions in both goods and services segments.