Publications

The midterm election results reaffirmed social backing for the administration's economic plan, driving an improvement in expectations consistent with our GDP growth forecasts of 4.5% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026. This supports the continuity of the fiscal-monetary anchor and the ongoing disinflation process.

November inflation was 2.5% month-on-month (31.4% year-on-year) and accumulated 27.9% in the first eleven months of the year.

National inflation for October was 2.3% monthly (31.3% annually), exceeding estimates. It is the highest monthly value since April, but a reversal is expected in November due to exchange rate stability and the dissipation of electoral uncertainty.

Since July, a combination of interest rate volatility and the electoral outcome in the Province of Buenos Aires has generated renewed tensions in financial markets. Higher rates, exchange rate pressures and weaker confidence have led to a slowdown in economic activity.

In the midst of a year of global uncertainty, both due to economic and geopolitical factors, Latam has shown a particular resilience that has manifested itself in the appreciation of its currencies and the reduction of its risk premiums.

After more than 25 years of negotiations, Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay) and European Union (EU) reached an association agreement in December 2024— a turning point in the history of both regions. It is currently undergoing legal review, and a provisional implementation is expected by the beginning of 2026.

Inflation averaged 1.7% m/m in the last quarter, the lowest level in eight years (22% annualized). The monthly figure is in line with expectations (BBVA: 1.8%, REM-BCRA: 1.8%), so we maintain our projection of 28% y/y for 2025.