Publications

The upcoming minutes will be key to gauge to what extent most members remain focused on the weak growth outlook and how confident they are that the current degree of monetary restriction remains inconsistent with prevailing conditions and risks.

Mexican MSMEs have advanced in financial inclusion, but gaps in credit access and digitalization remain. Micro and women-led businesses face greater barriers. Strategic support is essential to fully integrate them into economic development.

This note uses the most recent data from ENIF and ENDUTIH 2024 to present how digital channels (mobile applications and websites) have contributed to the access and use of financial products in Mexico.

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 2.0% YoY in May, bringing the average year-over-year growth variance for the first five months of the year to 5.0% (vs. 1.0% in the same period last year).

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported 1.4% growth in May, driven by spending on goods during the Hot Sale (1.7% MoM).

Economic activity is deteriorating due to heightened uncertainty; tariffs are affecting an economy already weakened by judicial reform and fiscal consolidation. We forecast GDP to contract by (-)0.4% in 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 (1.2%).

In the post-pandemic period, amid a resurgence in inflation and elevated global debt levels, the debate over the level and trajectory of the neutral interest rate (r*) has resurfaced. This analysis explores this question for a selection of Latin American countries.

The proposed 3.5% tax on remittances in the United States would increase the cost of sending 350 dollars from 5 to 17.25 dollars, representing an increase of nearly 250%. This sharp increase could spur the growth of multiple informal and unregulated channels for sending remittances.