Most recent posts from Mexico

Despite poverty reduction in Mexico (2018-2024), PISA 2025 results reveal an educational stagnation. Seven out of ten students fail to reach the minimum level in mathematics, and the gap between socioeconomic strata persists, highlighting a structural problem in the quality of education.

In Mexico, differences in exposure to financial learning are observed across income levels. Higher-income adults report greater exposure from an early age, and these experiences are associated with relatively higher ownership of financial products.

In July 2026, the growth of outstanding credit to the Non-Financial Private Sector (2.9% in real annual terms) remained near the year's highs, driven by consumer and business lending. Deposit growth slowed to 2.3% in real annual terms, reflecting a sharp slowdown in time deposits.

We expect Banxico to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% this week and to reiterate that the current stance remains appropriate, looking through a preemptive Fed hiking cycle amid diverging business cycles in the two countries.

The 2027 economic package projects a gradual fiscal consolidation with a wide deficit of -3.9% of GDP. Despite fiscal prudence, challenges remain due to low tax collection and spending rigidity. Seeking revenue growth without a comprehensive reform limits fiscal space for more public investment.

Despite these gains, remittances declined by 6.5% in real terms in July, due to inflation and, primarily, the depreciation of the US dollar. Since reaching their peak in July 2022, remittances to Mexico have fallen by 24.8% in real terms, negatively affecting the income of recipient households over the past four years.

In the second quarter of 2026, labor poverty in Mexico rebounded to 31.9%, 1.2 points above the historic low of the previous quarter. This increase is associated with a rise in labor informality, with the occupation rate reaching 30.2%, its highest level in more than 20 years.