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Uruguay Economic Outlook. First half 2018

By , , , , ,

Uruguay: growth slows, but investment expected to pick up. Downward revision of growth in Uruguay due to the effect of the drought on the agricultural and livestock sector and hydroelectric generation. Private consumption slows due to slacker pace of increase in real wages.

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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Latin America maintains its recovery amidst external turbulence. Growth will increase from 1.2% in 2017, to 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. The main external risks centre on protectionism and on China. On the domestic front, political noise and the possible delay in public and private investment is an upside risk in a number of countries.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

We forsee growth of 3.2% in 2018 and 3.5% for next year. The forecasts take into account a favourable international environment for Peru. On the domestic front we are assuming a calmer political scenario, a fiscal stimulus in 2018 and a commencement of the deficit reduction by the government next year.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

We forsee growth of 3.2% in 2018 and 3.5% for next year. The forecasts take into account a favourable international environment for Peru. On the domestic front we are assuming a calmer political scenario, a fiscal stimulus in 2018 and a commencement of the deficit reduction by the government next year.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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Latin America maintains its recovery amidst external turbulence. Growth will increase from 1.2% in 2017, to 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. The main external risks center on protectionism and on China. On the domestic front, political noise and the possible delay in public and private investment is an upside risk in a number of countries.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Are cryptocurrencies an option for Latin America’s central banks?

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The issue of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether, among many others, has been increasing in recent years. Their use has been driven by the wish to use a decentralised currency that is not controlled by a central bank. Paradoxically, the technological development that made it popular is also within reach of the authorities.

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

The economy continues to grow but at a slower pace due to the impact of a severe drought that affects the central agricultural area at the beginning of 2018. Inflation accelerates more than expected in the first four months of the year, but will be reduced in the second half due to: i) exchange stability and ii) wage agreements in line with the 15% target.

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Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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GDP growth will accelerate, reaching a rate of 2.0% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, driven by private spending. Inflation will converge to the 3.0% target and will allow the Central Bank to reduce its rate to 4.0% in the second quarter of this year. The exchange rate will depreciate in the second half of 2018.

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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GDP growth will accelerate, reaching a rate of 2.0% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, driven by private spending. Inflation will converge to the 3.0% target and will allow the Central Bank to reduce its rate to 4.0% in the second quarter of this year. The exchange rate will depreciate in the second half of 2018.

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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GDP grew 1.0% in 2017 and should accelerate gradually going forward. We maintain our GDP growth forecasts of 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. Political and fiscal developments will shape the future economic performance; the sustainability of the economic recovery requires the adoption of structural measures to bring the fiscal deterioration to an end.

Available in Spanish, English

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Central Bank Digital Currencies in LatAm

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We identified the most relevant factors for the implementation of a CBDC in LatAm, under different designs. We concluded that the region could benefit more from the adoption of a CBDC than developed countries. However, the existence of costs associated with implementation casts uncertainty on where it will be adopted first.

Available in English

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Colombia | Building the recovery

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The housing sector has been one of the main drivers of economic activity. It will continue to be very important in the future. There is still ample margin for growth due to a housing deficit in the country, rising household incomes, and a recent improvement in financing conditions.

Units:
Geographies:Colombia

Available in Spanish

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Digital Economy Outlook. First quarter 2018

By , , , ,

In this issue we focus on: The framework for digital regulation in Latin America: How to balance innovation and safety?; Decentralized Applications (DApps): The building blocks of the future Internet; Instant payments; The cloud vs. mainframe conundrum; Enhancing Economic Empowerment through Financial Inclusion.

Available in Spanish, English

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Assessing Corruption with Big Data

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We build a real-time, high-frequency Corruption Perception Index based on Google Trends data. It shows that the worldwide perception of corruption has been increasing since 2009, with significant heterogeneity across countries. Focusing in the case of Brazil, we show that a higher perception of corruption reduces both government approval ratings and confidence indexes.

Available in Spanish, English

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The new normal in Latam

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Latin America is consolidating the renewal of a growth cycle that began 2017. In the past few months activity figures have been pleasantly surprising in most countries. At the same time, prices of key export commodities have risen substantially.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English