Publications and economic news

We expect Banxico to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% this week and to reiterate its message that the current stance will remain in place for an extended period as it continues to monitor services inflation.

The BBVA Research Manufacturing Multidimensional Indicator grew 2.3% YoY in May, reaching an average annual growth rate of 2.4% during the first five months of the year, 4.4 percentage points above the figure recorded in the same period of 2025.

U.S.-Iran Negotiations Advance Toward Permanent Agreement. Fragile Ceasefire Holds in Southern Lebanon.G7 Reaffirms Support for Ukraine

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (BDCI) increased 0.4% MoM in May (real), marking its first positive monthly reading since October.

The debate over Europe lagging behind the US economy reveals that improvements in per capita income, based on current purchasing power parities, coexist with a lower capacity to purchase goods and services in the United States, which is inconsistent with full convergence.

In April 2026, the outstanding credit to the non-financial private sector continued to slow, reaching 1.3% in real annual terms, due to the fourth consecutive negative contribution from corporate lending, influenced by currency appreciation. Deposit growth accelerated to 1.6% in real annual terms, driven by term deposits.

The economy is showing resilience thanks to expansionary fiscal policy and the mild impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. However, the expiration of public aid and European funds, together with higher costs, points to an economic slowdown during the second half of the year.