Publications

Consumer prices inflation came in at 1.94% m/m in March, below both our (2.2%) and market (2.3%) expectations, bringing annual inflation down to 30.87%. However, rising energy prices, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and adverse supply-side factors are reinforcing upside risks to the inflation outlook.

In addition to being constrained by credit growth caps, financial conditions have tightened again in March, led by the conflict in the Middle East. The current outlook signals the continuation of high interest rates and of the controlled credit growth.

Inflation in Lima Metropolitana registered a historical increase of 2.38% month-over-month in March. This increase, the largest in 32 years, raised the year-over-year rate to 3.8%, surpassing the upper limit of the Central Bank's target range due to climate and energy factors.

Spain’s renewable-based power model has increased resilience to external energy shocks, especially at the wholesale level, but incomplete grid readiness, limited storage and high non-energy costs constrain how much of that advantage reaches final consumers.

Trump US Signals Potential Expansion of Military Objectives in Iran Conflict. NATO intercepts Iranian Missiles. Trump signals willingness to end Iran without reopening Ormuz.

In February 2026, the national unemployment rate stood at 9.2%, below the 10.3% recorded a year ago. The annual reduction of 1.1 p.p. was mainly due to the increase in the occupation rate, which was accompanied by dynamic employment growth (2.7%).

Global trade has shown resilience following the increase in U.S. tariffs, avoiding a contraction despite a more protectionist environment, supported by the reconfiguration of trade flows, the boost from artificial intelligence, and temporary factors such as frontloaded purchases.