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img_publication Outlook

Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

By , , , ,

The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil Price shock maintaining positive growth. Nonetheless the recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation should continue its descending path in 2018 reaching the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its reference interest rate.

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1.Editorial

By , , , ,

The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil Price shock maintaining positive growth. Nonetheless the recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation should continue its descending path in 2018 reaching the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its reference interest rate.



2.Positive global environment is trending toward stabilization

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Growth trends toward stabilization in developed economies. Latin America shows a slower than expected exit from deceleration. We expect a global growth of 3,3% for 2017 and 3,4% for 2018, within this data China and Europe are revised upward while USA and Latin America are revised downward



3.Colombia continues to feel the effects of a shock unprecedented in recent times

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The terms of trade shock experienced by Colombia has few historical comparisons and makes of it a very particular event. The current cycle shares some similarities and differences with recent cycles of deceleration. Capital and exchange rate markets within this adverse scenario have shown positive signs



4.Inertial growth: towards a slow recovery cycle

By , , , ,

Economic deceleration has continued along 2017, with an annual growth of 1,1% in 1Q17 and signals of a similar behavior for 2q17. The limitations of fiscal and monetary policy to give robust stimulus to the economy and the absence of growth drivers allow us to anticipate a slow recuperation



5.Inflation decelerates, overcoming supply shocks

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Supply shocks dilute and total inflation decelerates; core inflation maintains slightly higher. Inflation on the back of the exchange rate stability will converge to the target range in 2018 allowing the Central Bank to lower interest rates to 4,5% in the same year



6.The structural external balance should continue its trend of improvement in the mid term

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The task to adjust the external balance must continue, even though it is probable that the adjustment comes at a lower rate. A greater negative effect on the labor market and a pessimistic spiral from the consumer side are the main risks over the economy in the following quarters




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