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This Observatory evaluates the factors that explain the cyclical behavior of GDP in Spain, full-time equivalent employment and productivity up to 4Q2023.

A third-in-a-row 0.4% MoM core CPI inflation reading for March following strong jobs reports added to a series of hot data that suggest a rate cut soon is off the table amid increased odds for less than three rate cuts this year.

In commemoration of International Earth Day, we present an analysis of the current water situation in Mexico. This analysis highlights the geographical, sectoral, structural, and temporary characteristics that have given rise to the current wat…

The BBVA Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator fell (-)1.2% YoY in March (the third consecutive drop so far this year), confirming the prolonged slowdown of the sector, given the gradual slowdown in external demand for durable goods.

Asian currencies accelerated their depreciating trend recently. This report aims to understand this phenomenon and assess the associated risks.

Presentation held at the seminar at Bilkent University about the use of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence for economic analysis.

Bank performance in 2023 was affected by a lackluster macro environment, primarily due to the downturn in the property market. Bank's housing sector exposure declining, but risks from local government financial vehicles remain concerning.

By the end of 2023, the Mexican economy grew at an annual rate of 3.2%, with an extraordinary growth of 15.6% in construction and differentiated effects at the regional level. The dynamism of services underpins growth in 2023; Wholesale and Ret…

After the local election results, we expect the maintenance of current economic policies with more aggressive tightening in the short term. Therefore, expected additional restrictive measures might generate downside risk on our short term infla…

At the end of 2023 we find opposite results in the Real Estate market. Construction presents historical results, growth rates well above the average in different indicators. The housing market is contracting with figures as of November 2023. In…

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Our most recent publications

In this publication you will find, on a weekly basis, our selection of the most relevant news regarding financial regulation.

Despite the quarter's negative seasonality, both the number of jobs (up 0.5% quarterly CVEC) and hours worked (up 0.3%) increased. Furthermore, the rate of temporary employment and the unemployment rate both fell (to 16.1% and 11.7% CVEC, respectively).

The CBRT kept the policy rate constant at 50% in line with market expectations. We expect the CBRT to remain tight for longer on high inflation expectations, which would start a sustained path to unwind current regulations and exit from the FC …

This Observatory evaluates the factors that explain the cyclical behavior of GDP in Spain, full-time equivalent employment and productivity up to 4Q2023.

A third-in-a-row 0.4% MoM core CPI inflation reading for March following strong jobs reports added to a series of hot data that suggest a rate cut soon is off the table amid increased odds for less than three rate cuts this year.

See more

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