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United States Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Most people would agree that the current expansion cycle has been anemic. Since 2010, average real GDP growth has been 2.1%, significantly lower than 3.2% between 1992 and 2007. Over time, the cumulative difference between the two paths could be quite dramatic

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1.Editorial

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Most people would agree that the current expansion cycle has been anemic. Since 2010, average real GDP growth has been 2.1%, significantly lower than 3.2% between 1992 and 2007. Over time, the cumulative difference between the two paths could be quite dramatic





3.Oil prices outlook

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The second quarter of 2017 was marked by growing scepticism on the effectiveness of OPEC strategy to stabilize the market. The extension of the deal to cut output for nine more months did little to boost confidence and prices went down further



4.U.S. economic outlook

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Given the weak first quarter and lack of progress on fiscal policy, we have revised down our baseline forecasts for U.S. GDP growth to 2.1% for 2017 and 2.2% in 2018 from 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively



5.Economic impact of Trump’s policies

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During the presidential election, the then-president-candidate Donald Trump proposed various plans aiming to boost the U.S. economy to a state of high economic growth, high labor participation rate, low unemployment, and reduced trade deficits



6.Monetary policy normalization

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After jumpstarting market expectations, which had been on life support after a prolonged pause in interest rate increases in 2016, the Fed seemed to set a course for predictable path of rate increases and the balance sheet normalization in the first quarter



7.Effects of Fed’s balance sheet normalization on deposits

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At the June 2017 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the Addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans, which seeks to reduce the Fed’s Treasury securities and MBS holdings by decreasing the reinvestment of principal payments



8.What happens to the yield curve when the system goes into reverse?

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In the diverging global monetary policy landscape, what is the expected shape of the U.S. yield curve? The pass-through of four Fed funds rate increases by the FOMC to short-term rates has been in line with past tightening cycles




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